Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold Breaks out of consolidation with a clear bullish breakout occurring before the close of yesterday’s trading session. Both the MACD and RSI are now showing strong bullish signals, supporting the upward momentum.
This breakout is driven by several fundamental factors weakening the dollar:
- Renewed tariff concerns aimed at countries not negotiating with the U.S. “in good faith”
- A downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s
- The Fed’s wait-and-see approach to rate cuts
- Rising geopolitical concerns, particularly in the Middle East
- Trump’s withdrawal from mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict
- An upcoming vote on Trump’s significant tax reform package
All these factors are weighing on the dollar, making gold more attractive to international buyers. With the technical and fundamental landscape aligned, we now anticipate further upside in gold prices, with potential to test or surpass historical highs—contingent on how these fundamentals evolve in the coming days.
SILVER
Silver prices remain below historical norms, even as gold rallies. However, there are signs of growing strength, with the MACD and RSI showing increased bullish momentum and volume. In a risk-off environment, silver may benefit from a spillover effect as traders seek alternatives to the dollar. If momentum builds, we could see additional upside in the near term.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar is under pressure due to rising geopolitical risks, tariff threats, and weak macroeconomic fundamentals. Despite holding within a consolidation range, bearish pressure is building. Both MACD and RSI confirm weakening momentum, and with gold strengthening, sentiment continues to shift away from the greenback.
We anticipate more volatility as markets digest these developments. A confirmed break below key support could trigger broader downside in the dollar.
GBP/USD
The Pound has broken above its previous range, suggesting a bullish continuation is underway. The MACD and RSI both confirm upward momentum, with healthy, steady growth despite volatile price movements.
However, multiple resistance levels remain overhead, so traders should remain cautious. With continued dollar weakness, we expect the Pound to extend gains, albeit with potential pullbacks near key resistance zones.
AUD/USD
The Aussie remains muted despite dollar weakness, reflecting market expectations of another rate cut by the RBA.
According to analysts, the RBA’s recent press conference signaled a pivot from hawkish to dovish, with talk of potentially cutting rates by 50bps. Goldman Sachs now forecasts:
- 25bp cuts in July and August
- A final cut in November, reaching a terminal rate of 3.1%
Markets now price in a >50% chance of a rate cut at the July 8 meeting, up from <20% a week ago. Technically, the Aussie remains range-bound, and we await a clear structural break before taking a stance.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi has previously broken higher but failed to sustain strong upside. However, technical indicators remain bullish, with the MACD and RSI showing consistent volume and momentum.
Markets are also expecting a rate cut from the RBNZ, contributing to some underlying weakness. Yet, it remains more resilient than the AUD, suggesting a potential bullish continuation if structural resistance is cleared.
Westpac now forecasts a 25bp cut with potential for further easing, with year-end rates seen closer to 2.83%, down from 3.0% earlier this week.
EUR/USD
The Euro has gained significantly and now shows a clear bullish bias. The MACD and RSI support this, although the RSI is nearing overbought territory—suggesting a possible short-term pullback.
Nevertheless, overall momentum has shifted bullish, and we expect continued gains as long as price action holds above recent support.
USD/JPY
The Yen continues to gain on the dollar, confirming a bearish trend for USD/JPY. The MACD shows strong bearish volume, while the RSI is hinting at a potential short-term correction before further downside resumes.
We remain bearish on this pair, expecting further Yen strength unless sentiment or fundamentals shift significantly.
USD/CHF
The Franc is gaining sharply against the dollar, with price action showing an aggressive move lower in USD/CHF. Both the MACD and RSI are aligned with this bearish trend, confirming rising momentum.
We anticipate continued downside and will look for additional bearish opportunities in the sessions ahead.
USD/CAD
The CAD is also strengthening, with the MACD and RSI showing increased bearish volume and momentum against the dollar.
With the broader structure favoring the bears, we expect further downside in USD/CAD and will continue to look for sell-side opportunities as long as the structure holds.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (3/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
A perfect storm of geopolitical instability, trade concerns, fiscal strain, and dovish U.S. policy signals has sparked a surge in gold. With technicals breaking to the upside and fundamentals stacked against the dollar, traders are now eyeing historical highs in gold—and possible follow-through in silver.
Forex markets are reflecting this shift, especially in pairs like GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY. Stay tuned for follow-through confirmations, especially with central bank decisions on the horizon. visit: https://axelprivatemarket.com/